The World of Chocolate: Analysing the Global Chocolate Market

Chocolate is one of the most beloved sweets around. Curious about what is going on in the chocolate industry? Dive into this article to explore its origins, the global market's trends, challenges, and what the future holds.

Read this article to know:

• Historical context
• The global chocolate market overview
  • Chocolate consumption
  • Market size and value
  • Major cocoa beans producing & processing countries and regions
  • Key chocolate manufacturers and brands
• Consumer trends and preferences
• Challenges facing the industry
• Future outlook
• Final thoughts

Historical Context

Chocolate is more than just a delicious treat. It carries a rich history and culture that has captivated humanity for centuries. From its ancient origins in the Americas to becoming a cherished global commodity, chocolate has undergone a remarkable transformation.

Early Origins of Chocolate: circa 1900 BC

It’s unclear exactly when cacao came on the scene or who invented it. The earliest known cultivation of cacao plants took place in the regions that are now Mexico, Guatemala, and Honduras. The Olmec civilisation, one of the first complex societies in Mesoamerica, is believed to have been the first to turn the cacao plant into chocolate, consuming it as a bitter drink.

The Olmecs undoubtedly passed their cacao knowledge on to the Central American Maya who not only consumed chocolate, they revered it. Chocolate played a significant role in both Mayan and Aztec cultures (250 AD to 1500s), not just as a food but as a currency and a ceremonial offering.

European Introduction and Spread: 16th — 17th Centuries

Until the 16th century, the cacao tree was wholly unknown to Europeans. There are conflicting reports about when chocolate arrived in Europe, although it’s agreed it first arrived in Spain. Chocolate made its way to Europe following the Spanish conquest of the Aztec Empire. Initially, Spaniards used it as a medicine to treat illnesses such as abdominal pain because of its bitterness. But they soon discovered that the best way to make chocolate more palatable was to add sugar and spices. Once sweetened, its popularity quickly spread among the Spanish aristocracy and later throughout Europe. It was still served as a beverage, but the addition of sugar or honey counteracted the natural bitterness.

Industrial Revolution: 18th — 19th Centuries

The industrial era brought significant innovations to chocolate production.

• In 1828, Dutch chemist Coenraad van Houten developed the cocoa press, which helped to produce cocoa powder, making chocolate easier to blend with liquids and creating a smoother consistency. The process became known as “Dutch processing” and the chocolate produced called cacao powder or “Dutch cocoa.” This invention paved the way for the first solid chocolate in the modern era.
• The first chocolate bar was created by Joseph Fry in 1847 when he discovered that he could make a moldable chocolate paste by adding melted cacao butter back into Dutch cocoa.
• Swiss chocolatier Daniel Peter is generally credited for adding dried milk powder to chocolate to create milk chocolate in 1876. But it wasn’t until several years later that he worked with his friend Henri Nestlé — together they created the Nestlé Company and brought milk chocolate to the mass market.
• Chocolate had come a long way during the 19th century, but it was still hard and difficult to chew. In 1879, another Swiss chocolatier, Rudolf Lindt, invented the chocolate conch machine which mixed and aerated chocolate, giving it a smooth, melt-in-your-mouth consistency that blended well with other ingredients.

Mass Production: Late 19th Century

Lindt & Sprüngli AG, a Swiss-based concern with global reach, had its start in 1845 as the Sprüngli family confectionery shop in Zurich that added a solid-chocolate factory the same year the process for making solid chocolate was developed and later bought Lindt's factory. Later, companies like Cadbury, Nestlé, and Hershey began mass-producing chocolate, making it accessible to the general public and not just the elite.

Innovation and Diversification: 20th Century — Present

The 20th century saw the diversification of chocolate into the many forms we know today. Most modern chocolate (in the late 20th and early 21st centuries) is highly-refined and mass-produced, although some chocolatiers still make their chocolate creations by hand and keep the ingredients as pure as possible. Chocolate is available to drink, but is more often enjoyed as an edible confection or in desserts and baked goods.

Thus, throughout much of its history, chocolate was a bitter beverage, not a sweet, rich-tasting treat. But after it became popular in the courts of Europe and the streets of colonial America, chocolate soon evolved into the universally loved commodity it is today.

The Global Chocolate Market Overview

Chocolate Consumption

According to Ingredients Network, the world’s leading online directory for global sellers of ingredients used in food, the world’s average chocolate consumption amounts to an estimated 0.9 kg per capita per year.

However, there's a huge chasm in chocolate consumption around the world. While the cocoa-based treat is very popular in large parts of Europe, many people in Asia prefer other sweet treats.

Let's look at the countries that consume the most chocolate in the world.

This chart highlights the notable preference for chocolate in European countries, with Switzerland at the forefront.

• Often leading the list, Switzerland is renowned for its high-quality chocolate, with residents consuming an impressive amount of chocolate per capita annually — almost 9 kg. As we already know from the history of chocolate, Switzerland has a long-standing chocolate-making tradition dating back to the 19th century. This heritage is deeply embedded in Swiss culture, with generations of chocolatiers perfecting the art of chocolate making.
• Germany is the world's second top consumer of chocolate products. This significant consumption is supported by deeply rooted love for chocolate in its culture, and by Germany's position as a major player in the chocolate industry, both as a consumer and a producer.
• The United Kingdom is home to some iconic chocolate brands and has a high annual per capita chocolate consumption, together with Ireland (which may be surprising to some).
• Notably, Scandinavian countries show high consumption levels compared to the rest of world. It can be explained by the climate. In colder climates, people might consume more chocolate as a comforting, calorie-rich food. In contrast, hot climates can make chocolate less appealing due to its melting tendency.
• The Netherlands and Belgium, known for their chocolate heritage, are also among the top chocolate consumers in the world.

Market Size and Value

The global chocolate market is a dynamic and growing industry, with significant variations in size and value reported by different sources.

• According to Expert Market Research, the market reached a value of approximately USD 133.32 billion in 2023, with predictions of growth at a CAGR of 4.4% from 2024 to 2032, aiming for a value of USD 196.43 billion by 2032.
• Grandview Research presents a slightly different picture, estimating the market size at USD 119.39 billion in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 4.1% through to 2030.
• Mordor Intelligence provides a lower estimate for 2024, expecting the market to reach USD 109.13 billion, growing at a CAGR of 4.87% to hit USD 145.14 billion by 2030.
• According to Barry Callebaut, the world's leading manufacturer of high-quality chocolate and cocoa products, chocolate confectionery is expected to be worth over USD 130 billion in global retail sales by the end of 2024, with volume growth of 2% CAGR over the next 5 years.

In summary, the global chocolate market is estimated to be valued at around USD 130 billion, with an anticipated average annual growth rate of approximately 4% leading up to 2030.

Major Cocoa Beans Producing & Processing Countries and Regions

Most cocoa in the world, the raw ingredient for chocolate, is produced in West Africa. In the cocoa season 2021/2022, around 4.9 million tonnes of cocoa were produced worldwide. Côte d'Ivoire (the Ivory Coast) and Ghana are by far the two largest cocoa growing countries, accounting for nearly 60% of global cocoa production, followed by Ecuador with 9%. In Asia, Indonesia is the largest producer country (3%).

Thus, the Ivory Coast and Ghana, plays a critical role in the global chocolate market as the largest producers of cacao. Their contribution is crucial in supplying cacao to the rest of the world.

Cocoa beans are processed around the globe into cocoa mass, cocoa butter, cocoa powder, chocolate or other cocoa products. More than a third of the cocoa beans are processed in Europe. The Netherlands alone grinds 12% of the beans. The world’s biggest grinding country is, again, Côte d'Ivoire (15%).

Europe leads in chocolate production, with countries like the Netherlands, Germany, France, Belgium, and Switzerland known for their high-quality and artisanal chocolates. This reputation is bolstered by a long history and tradition of chocolate making. Many innovations to chocolate production came from these countries.

It's notable that Spain, which introduced chocolate to Europe in the 16th century, ranks only fourth in European chocolate processing (2%) and holds the 11th spot globally in cocoa processing.

Also noteworthy are countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia in Asia, and the United States, which is a major player in the global chocolate market, home to some of the largest chocolate manufacturers and a vast consumer base with diverse preferences.

Key Chocolate Manufacturers and Brands

The global chocolate market is dominated by several key players with extensive product ranges and significant market presence. However, many of these companies are conglomerates where chocolate confectionery is just one part of a broader confectionery market that also includes ice cream, preserved pastry goods, cakes, and sugar confectionery. This diversity makes it challenging to compile an accurate list of top chocolate manufacturers, especially since not all companies disclose revenue by product category.

Candy Industry, industry media known for covering news, trends, and analysis in the confectionery sector, publishes an annual list of the top 100 global confectionery companies based on net sales. Notably, the International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) refers to this list for identifying key chocolate manufacturers, making this list a valuable resource for the industry.

To identify and rank the main chocolate players globally, we'll begin with Candy Industry's latest top 100 global confectionery companies list and exclude those not producing chocolate products, removing companies like Perfetti Van Melle, Haribo GmbH, and General Mills. After that, there are still companies on the list that produce more than just chocolate confectionery. However, due to their significant impact on the chocolate industry, we keep them listed.

Company revenues also need updating, as Candy Industry's estimations are from 2020, a year when COVID-19 significantly impacted sales. The actual 2022 revenue figures I used come from a mix of official annual reports, surveys, and press releases from manufacturers. In the absence of direct sources, I relied on published statistics from Statista and Yahoo Finance, or used figures from Candy Industry. Revenues in local currencies were converted to USD using the 2022 average exchange rates from Exchange Rates UK.

The global chocolate landscape is shaped by key manufacturers whose iconic brands have become household names, synonymous with indulgence and quality. Let's explore the brands of chocolate-producing confectionery manufacturers with annual revenues higher than 5 billion USD (world's top 7).

1. Mars Wrigley Confectionery is known for brands like M&M's, Snickers, and Twix. Mars is a significant force in the global chocolate market.
2. Ferrero Group is famous for Ferrero Rocher, Nutella, and Kinder. Ferrero has a significant impact on global chocolate consumption patterns.
3. Mondelẽz International, Inc. is home to well-known brands such as Cadbury, Milka, and Toblerone. Mondelez has a substantial share of the market.
4. The Hershey Company is an iconic brand, especially in the United States. Hershey's has a broad portfolio of products that are popular worldwide.
5. Barry Callebaut AG stands out in the global chocolate and cocoa market for its exceptional quality and sustainable approach, serving leading food manufacturers and chocolatiers. The company is known for its diverse product range and renowned brands like Callebaut, Cacao Barry, and Carma.
6. Nestlé S.A. has a global presence, and its chocolate and confectionery segment includes famous brands like KitKat and Nesquik.
7. Lindt & Sprüngli AG is renowned for its premium chocolates. Lindt is a key player, especially in the high-end market segment.

From the rich heritage of Swiss chocolates to the innovative creations of American confectioners, these leading companies and their esteemed brands continue to define the tastes and preferences of chocolate lovers around the world, shaping consumer preferences and industry trends worldwide.

Consumer Trends and Preferences

The chocolate market is constantly evolving together with the evolving consumer trends and preferences. These preferences are reshaping the industry, prompting manufacturers to innovate and adapt to meet the sophisticated demands of today's chocolate lovers.

Consumer Preferences and Attitudes

Why do people eat chocolate? Barry Callebaut, investigated the key reasons and discovered that they all are on the indulgence side: treat myself, satisfy a craving, and indulge.

What chocolate do global consumers prefer? Milk chocolate is the favourite worldwide (48%), with dark chocolate (28%) following. Ruby chocolate, introduced in 2017, remains less common (3%).

Remarkably that in 2022, there was a 5pp decrease in dark chocolate preference in favour of milk chocolate (+4pp), along with ruby and caramel (+1pp each) chocolates, which contain more sugar, contradicting healthy trends. These results may have been influenced by the inclusion of German and Japanese consumers in the 2022 survey.

What are chocolate purchase criteria? Chocolate purchasing decisions are primarily based on three main criteria: taste and flavour, product appearance, and sugar content.

Consumer Trends

Barry Callebaut has also released the “Top Chocolate Trends 2024” report, which explores consumer preferences that will shape the global and regional chocolate markets this year and beyond.

According to this report, three key trends driven by changing consumer attitudes are affecting the indulgence landscape in the chocolate confectionery market:

1. “Intense indulgence”,
2. “Mindful indulgence”,
3. “Healthy indulgence”.

“Intense indulgence”

Consumers look for Intense indulgence when they want to enjoy life to the fullest.

Based on the its proprietary research in August 2023, the company discovered that global consumers:

• prefer chocolate confectionery that has multiple textures,
• consider chocolates with a unique story about where it comes from / how it is made more premium,
• actively seek out for seasonal and gifting chocolate confectionery,
• want to try unique and rare chocolate confectionery experiences.

Another intersting fact is that every second global consumer is likely to make a one-time impulse purchase when the food is a limited edition, and 64% of global consumers actively seek out premium versions of their favourite chocolates.

“Mindful indulgence”

Consumers want to indulge without compromising their (physical and mental) well-being, the health of others or the planet.

In terms of mindful indulgence, Barry Callebaut coins the term “Triple Play”, which means choose tasty, good for me and good for the planet chocolates. 75% of global consumers are looking for this “Triple Play”.

In addition, global consumers actively seek:

• ‘less sugar’ or ‘no-sugar’ chocolate solutions,
• plant-based chocolate confectionary,
• sustainably produced chocolates,
• natural and clean label chocolates, that are out of natural and authentic ingredients, have streamlined ingredient lists, and are free-from claims.

Especially, Foresight Factory's Consumer Research 2022 revealed that nearly 6 in 10 global consumers express a desire to feel closer to rural life.

“Healthy indulgence”

Consumers looking for healthy indulgences actively and intentionally make choices that have a positive impact on their health.

In terms of physical and mental wellbeing, almost 70% of global consumers would love a healthy-boosted chocolate from ingredients with proven benefits like vitamins, minerals, fibers, and flavanols.

Challenges Facing the Industry

The International Cocoa Organisation's January 2024 report highlights the following points that can be considered as challenges in the chocolate industry:

• Ongoing supply deficits and unfavourable weather in West Africa pushing cocoa prices up.
• London and New York saw significant price hikes from the previous year: compared to the nominal average price in January 2023, in 2024 prices are up by 84% in London and 67% in New York.
• Origin processing has been promoted over the past years and Côte d’Ivoire is currently seen as the leading cocoa grinder in the world. However, there is the likelihood of origin grindings being affected by the low availability of beans at major origin destinations.

Besides that, the cocoa sector faces a number of other challenges:

• ensuring fair labor conditions for cocoa farmers,
• child labour,
• deforestation and loss of biodiversity,
• the threat of climate change,
• addressing health concerns related to sugar content in chocolate products.

Therefore, supply deficits, rising prices, labor issues, environmental concerns, and health implications from chocolate consumption present significant challenges to the industry. Coordinated efforts from all stakeholders are crucial for the cocoa supply chain's sustainability and ethical integrity.

Future Outlook

The global chocolate market continues to evolve, driven by consumer demands for innovation, quality, and sustainability. As new markets emerge and existing ones expand, the industry's future looks both challenging and promising.

The future of the chocolate industry is poised for evolution, with a strong focus on:

• sustainable manufacturing processes from bean to bar,
• innovations in flavours and healthier options: more growth in vegan, vegetarian, and plant-based claims, no added sugar, and the use of natural sweeteners,
• meeting the growing consumer demand for premium and artisanal chocolates (celebrate, escape the ordinary and treat yourself with a small luxury),
• at the same time, growing consumer demand for ”better value for money” (buy less products, buy in bulk, switch to private label).
• addressing environmental concerns and ensuring fair labor practices in cocoa production.

According to various estimates, the global chocolate confectionery is expected to be worth between USD 145 and 180 billion in global retail sales by the end of 2030.

Final Thoughts

Over its 5,000-year history, chocolate evolved into the universally loved commodity. Nowadays, the global chocolate market is a dynamic landscape shaped by changing consumer preferences, technological innovation, and sustainability concerns. It is comparable in size to the global diamond market.

As tastes shift towards premium, artisanal, and ethically sourced chocolates, manufacturers face the challenge of adapting to these trends while maintaining quality and affordability. The future of chocolate will likely hinge on balancing indulgence with health, and tradition with innovation, ensuring it remains a favourite treat worldwide.

Happy intense, mindful, and healthy indulging!

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